Morris vs Joe Rock

[Morris]

Mar 13th 1945 fair


Berlin is encircled . It will be finished within two turns .

[Morris]

Apr 3rd 1945 fair

this is the last turn

[Morris]

Congratulations to Joe 's great victory !

Welcome Joe to share his feeling of this pbem !

[Cybvep]

Great AAR. I think that it will become legendary. It certainly shows that Allied capabilities are immense during late-game.

[Peter Stauffenberg]

You lost to the Allies on the same turn I did against Joe. Well done, Morris and of course well done to Joerock.

[rkr1958]

This match was like the first Ali-Fraiser fight back in, what 1971 or 1972. Like that fight this AAR is destined to become a classic. Heck; it's already a classic.

[joerock22]

Hello everyone,

Hamburg fell on 4/2/45 as expected, and the Allies won a minor victory. I’m happy to win such a great contest. At various points, I was either confident that I was going to win or absolutely certain that I would lose. Seldom does a game have so many ups and downs for me. More detail on that later; I plan to post my thoughts from all phases of the game. Morris has posted an excellent AAR here, and has encouraged me to add my perspective, so I couldn’t refuse.

But the rest of the game can wait. Right now, what seems to be fresh in everyone’s mind is the 1944-45 push to Germany, so that is what I will talk about first.

The campaign season started with the Russians facing a seemingly unbreakable wall in the east, and the Allies cautiously pushing forward in the west. At the time, I thought that the Russians would have no chance of breaking through in the east. I thought that my only hope was to push from two directions. I suspected that Morris was preparing a counterattack in France (those panzers aren’t for defense!), but at the same time I felt I had no other option than to push forward. I also thought my troops could handle themselves; I had no idea he could kill so many units so quickly.

After the initial devastating counterattack, I fell back with the idea of protecting my ports in France. Another goal was to draw the German tanks further west so they could be more easily bombed. Both strategies worked; Morris’s offensive cost me many more units than him, but the losses in terms of pure steps or PPs were a little more comparable. The Allies could afford to lose much of their land army to inflict heavy losses on the Germans (although I didn’t know it at the time!) Still, the few turns after his counteroffensive were one of those times I mentioned where I was almost certain I would lose. I even told Morris this in an email! It seems foolish now, but the Soviets were up against the strongest defensive line I’ve ever faced, and the Allies had practically no land army to speak of (only 4-5 tanks and a handful of other units survived in France). So you can understand my pessimism.

Speaking of the Russians, I originally started my eastern offensive with the goal of keeping pressure on the Axis so that the Allies could at least capture Rome and Paris to earn a minor defeat. My strategy was to pick off between 2-4 German units per turn and hope for the best. Here is the approximate size of my army at the start of the campaign:

10-12 fighters
10-12 tactical bombers
12 mechs
10 tanks

These forces, especially the tactical bombers and mechs, were growing throughout the campaign. My typical turn consisted of picking 2-4 targets that were exposed to 3 Soviet hexes. In this way I could exploit the fact that Morris’s line was not straight north-south, but had some awkward angles in it. Each target unit would be hit with 2 strong tactical bombers (minimum 7 steps, usually 8 or better). The target unit would then usually be left at 7-9 steps. I would then attack with a combination of 3 mechs, tanks, and guard corps. In most cases, the target unit was destroyed and the unit I had to capture the hex with was at reasonable strength. I lost a few units to German counterattack, but not that many. Then it was just rinse and repeat.

Here are some factors that contributed to the Russian success:

1. Numbers – the mass of Soviet units certainly played a role. I always had mechs and tanks in reserve, allowing damaged units to repair and upgrade. I had enough bombers so that on any given turn only 50-75% of the bombers were actually attacking. The rest were repairing or upgrading. In this way, I assured that I almost always had enough relatively healthy bombers to hit my 2-4 targets.

2. Morale – this undoubtedly played a role as well. Effectiveness was excellent; I held Zhukov and Konev in reserve to command the air forces. They helped the ground troops as well, but they were absolutely NOT front-line commanders. Losing their morale boost would have really hurt

3. Eliteness – my guard mechs and tanks did almost all of the fighting during the winters of 1941-42 and 1942-43, and I didn’t lose any of them. So the guards that I started with were super-elite by 1944. I also had plenty of newer guard units created during 1943, where I purposefully chose units to attack based on their experience level. These units played an enormous role in cracking the defensive line; I could not have done it without them. I also made sure to place +1 attack commanders in the elite units for added effect

4. Fighters – the Red Air Force’s fighters only mattered for a period of a few turns, but as Morris has said they made a big difference. Prior to the major engagement with the Luftwaffe in mid-1944, I made sure my fighters could go toe-to-toe with the Germans. Tech and effectiveness were even. So when Morris moved his Luftwaffe from France to Germany, the Soviet offensive didn’t even slow down at all. Casualties during that first turn were heavy and even on both sides, but the difference was that I could afford repairs and he couldn’t. So the Luftwaffe was destroyed without any tangible effect on my offensive toward Berlin, which was my goal all along

5. Research – this was not a great research game for me, believe it or not. But a few developments really helped in this campaign. A +1 survivability boost for mechs and tanks, and especially strategic operations lv. 6 for the bombers (+2 survivability). I had focused on strategic operations in early 1943, and was thrilled when I finally got it. Average initial bomber odds went from 1:3 to 1:2 or 1:1. This meant less bombers had to repair each turn, and they could do more damage when they were active

6. The Alps Pocket – a total of 6 German corps were trapped in the Alps in fall 1944 by a Soviet-American meeting to the north. Had they escaped, these might have given Morris 1 more turn or even a draw.

7. Distance to Germany – it is unfortunate for Morris that the best defensive terrain in the east happens to be right outside Berlin. It was difficult to break through, but when I did, it was only a short dash to the German heartland

8. Weather – the weather in 1944-45 was not all that kind to me, actually. But Morris needed me to get very unlucky, and that didn’t happen. Both October 1944 turns were fair, and although I spent all but 1 of the intervening turns mired in the mud, March 1945 was fair as well. The Russians were by then able to kill 2-3 units per turn even in the mud due to their elite ground units and the fact that I moved most of the Soviet bombers into the northern (winter) weather zone

I’m sure there are more factors that came into play, but these are the bigger ones. I don’t think Morris made any major mistakes during the 1944-45 campaign. His counteroffensive in France was a master stroke. Perhaps he would have been better served to pull back after the initial attack and get his tanks out of Allied bomber range? In hindsight, probably yes.

But aside from that, all he could do was dig in and hope for the best. If he did make major mistakes, I think they were made in previous years. More on that later, maybe tomorrow after I rest my fingers.

[Diplomaticus]

Joe,

Thanks very much for your analysis. I'll be eagerly awaiting more details on the rest of the campaign from your point of view.

One thing really surprised me--the size of army you were able to afford, even having lost Moscow and most of the rest of Russia. How in the world did you manage all those planes, tanks, etc.? In a similar situation, my Russians were desperately low on PP and could hardly even replace losses when our backs were against the wall. What's your secret?

[joerock22]

Joe,

Thanks very much for your analysis. I'll be eagerly awaiting more details on the rest of the campaign from your point of view.

One thing really surprised me--the size of army you were able to afford, even having lost Moscow and most of the rest of Russia. How in the world did you manage all those planes, tanks, etc.? In a similar situation, my Russians were desperately low on PP and could hardly even replace losses when our backs were against the wall. What's your secret?

The short version is not losing too many Russian corps in 1941-42. I retreated instead of fighting for the most part, until we reached the good defensive terrain around Omsk. So most of my PPs could be spent on tanks and planes. The low point of my PP income for the Russians was exactly 100 per turn, plus convoys.

[Morris]

Great analysis from Joe ! Much better than mine ! It made this AAR complete !

I also want to list my glorious time & foolish time as follows :

1 Glorious time : a 1941 Babarosa we took Stalingrad ,Urlarsk & Maikop oil field before winter .
b Urlarsk compaign we concentrate our elite troops to against USSR counter attack group in severe winter in 1941 . We hold & survive until the spring of 1942 coming . We just lost few corps & we hold a wonderful start point to start the 1942 summer offence .
c 1942 summer offense we conquer Moscow & Kubichev & move the front to omsk area .
d second stage of Sicily defence in 1943
e yellow case in France in 1944


2 Foolish time : a lost finland in 1941
b lost Brest by forgot to supply the minor corp in it in 1943
c As Joe said , I should withdraw my troops right after the first massive strike to Allies troops in 1944 in france .
d supply the Luftwaffe before they went to the east in 1944 & I should use the pp build the ground troops .
e move too many troops on Alpes

Maybe if I would correct one of the mistakes , It would win another two or three turn for me . But this is the game , I am not so smart to make no mistakes ! Victory is always belong to the one who made few mistakes ! Kudos to Joe !

I will try to revenge in my next pbem with him ! Then I will be Allies

[Morris]

Final screenshot from Joe . Thanks Joe !

[joerock22]

For Part 2 of my little Game Recap, we go back to the beginning. Or at least where the interesting stuff started happening.

April 1941 – Morris gets a fair turn, an early start to his Barbarossa, and the rout was on. I believe I was the first person to experience his southern Barbarossa strategy. I had no idea it was coming, and I did not respond very well. As I think someone mentioned, I tried to put up delaying roadblocks too far west and lost units that I didn’t need to lose for very little gain. The Axis were not slowed down much at all, as you can tell by the fall 1941 ending positions: Germans in Caucuses, northern oil fields, as far east as Uralsk. Russians have single infantry line dug in Caucuses mountains, single infantry line in front of Moscow, mobile forces north and east of Uralsk. Leningrad and Tallinn still Russian.

In this seemingly endless string of defeats, there was one bright spot. Morris was pressing hard at Petrozavodsk, and lost Finland when he allowed me to march into Juneau. He didn’t realize that Tallinn was one of the armistice cities. I can’t stress how huge this was. It saved my northern front and gave me one less thing to worry about.

But even though I had lost so much territory, I was not in a terrible position. I still held Moscow and Leningrad, and could prevent Morris from moving toward Baku with just a single line of infantry in the mountains and a couple commanders. My stronger forces were north and east of Uralsk, where many of Morris’s elite units were concentrated. This is where I resolved to strike during the winter. The Germans were exposed; the Russians could attack without much danger of being caught come spring. They were also in the low supply zone and their effectiveness was not very high.

I definitely stand by my decision here; I’m not sure I could have done better with an attack in another area. Here are the losses (I took some notes from this game because I thought I might be doing this in the end—from the losing side!):

Axis – 1 German tank, 4 German corps, 1 Hungarian mech, 1 Italian fighter (obsolete)
Russian – 1 mech, 2 corps

Not a huge tally, but the disparity between Soviet and German casualties is what you’re looking for in winter 1941-42. As spring approached, the Russians withdrew in good order and in plenty of time (or so I thought). We return to the east in Part 4. Part 3 will deal with the Western Allies.

[joerock22]

Part 3 – The Western Allies – Torch and Sicily

In early 1942, the Western Allies launched a strategic bombing campaign in Western Europe coupled with Operation Torch in Med. My thinking was as follows:
• Early landings in France go badly in my experience. The Axis can always rail enough units west to utterly crush it. With the amount of PPs Morris was getting, I was sure an early landing in France would be debacle. Some of the other AARs against Morris have since borne this out
• Get Tunisia as airbase and threaten Sicily. Draw Luftwaffe assets west to Italy or France, away from USSR. Do something that Morris absolutely can’t ignore, while not risking too much or giving him a chance to ruin Allied momentum.
• Strategic bombing will help offset the PPs Morris gets from Vichy cities in Southern France.
• Bring major air threat in two theatres so Morris can’t adequately cover both. Stretch that Luftwaffe thin!

Again, I stand by my decision. I invaded Sicily soon after Tunisia was conquered, and was able to get a foothold. Morris had filled the island with Italians and Axis minors, and as a result could not counterattack effectively, especially with me bombing the crap out of him. My air forces were as follows:

British – 5 fighters
American – 1 fighter, 3 tactical bombers

Palermo fell just before the Germans arrived on the scene in force, which was huge. I think if Morris had made a major German commitment a couple turns earlier, he could have pushed me into the sea. But once the Allies got a supply source, it became much more difficult. Still, for a couple turns in late 1942, I thought the Germans were going to annihilate the Allies on Sicily. But I placed a few defensive commanders, and the situation stabilized. The arrival of two more American Tacs at a crucial moment also helped tremendously. Thanks to heavy air and naval bombardment, I was able to destroy a German SS panzer and blunt Morris’s offensive. After that, the two sides settled into a stalemate, with Morris holding 4 hexes in the northeastern end of the island and me holding the rest.

Change did not come until fall 1943. The reason for this was the vast disparity in air tech between the Germans and British. Morris was at Dog Fight Lv. 6 by early 1943, while I was only at Lv. 3-4. Definitely not a fair fight. I was annoyed, because British air research had been maxed out and focused on dog fight right from turn 1. But such is the luck of random research sometimes. By fall 1943, I had achieved Lv. 5 and could at least get respectable results in dog fights. The Sicilian campaign could finally resume. Messina fell in early 1944, and the rest of Italy later that year.

One more thought—I think many players would have continued to attack with the Allied air forces during 1943, even with the severe tech disadvantage. Not me. The Axis/Allied casualty ratio would have been unacceptable. All the PPs I would have spent on repairs instead went to preparing for an invasion of France in 1944, for which I would need a massive air force and respectable ground forces. I knew Morris was swimming in oil by then, so I didn’t even try to drain his supplies. I don’t think I would have won the game if I hadn’t put all my fighters on sentry in the Med for at least six months. It was painful, but necessary.

[joerock22]

Part 4 – The East – Fighting for Survival and the Soviet Steamroller

So here I am, Uralsk area, Russia, March 1942, withdrawing in good order and putting some distance between myself and the German forces, when all of a sudden…the weather turns fair! I couldn’t believe that Morris got another fair turn in April. He caught a few units that I otherwise would have saved.

So I retreated to the strong defensive terrain west and south of Omsk. Meanwhile, I tried to hold Moscow as long as I could as Morris pressed in from 3 sides. At a crucial moment, I pulled 4 corps out to the north and abandoned the defense. Morris did not even try to go after these units, so all 4 of them escaped. Moscow fell, but not until mid-summer, and I was able to save a good portion of the defending army.

Meanwhile, Morris had started to nibble at my Omsk defensive line. His elite panzers and mechs seemed to make short work of even my dug in units, due on large part to poor Russian tech. Even with 2-3 labs, the Russians did not get Anti-Tank Guns Lv. 1 until December 1942! But ultimately, the Germans ran out of time. By the fall, Morris’s new mechs and tanks were being sent to Sicily rather than the USSR, and much of the Luftwaffe had been transferred to Southern Italy. For a few turns during the summer, I did think that the Russians were in real danger of being forced to surrender. But the Western Allies did just enough to take the pressure off, and the bad terrain allowed me to hang on by a thread.

One key thing I should mention: Morris killed corps units around Omsk. I did not give him the opportunity to kill mechs or tanks, especially not the guard ones. This was a crucial factor during the winter. By the time severe winter rolled around, the Red Army was much stronger, and the air force was growing: 6 fighters and 4 tactical bombers built or in the queue. All units were benefitting from Zhukov’s influence, and organization tech had reached Lv. 3. So my units in the 80s-90s faced German units in the 50s-60s. I was ready for another counteroffensive.

And to my delight, Morris left his elite panzers and mechs in the front line. At least one per turn could be bombed twice and then hit from 3 sides. In this manner, I destroyed probably 5-6 German tanks and 2-3 mechs. My casualties were high, but my own elite units were able to get the job done most of the time. The USSR was saved, and by spring the Red Army was poised to go on the offensive for the first time. You know what happened in 1943—the Red Army advanced basically unopposed except for city garrisons, and was in Poland by the end of the year.

Remember, too, that this game was played under the old rail rules. This allowed Morris to advance faster and farther in 1941, but it also allowed me to race through Russia in 1943 faster than the new rules would have allowed me. Both of us could rail new units to the front immediately rather than marching them there, which made a big difference for both of us. I’m not sure how this game would have played out under the new rail rules. I could see the end result swinging in either way.

So that concludes my Game Recap. I think I’ve covered the major points. If you have any questions, don’t hesitate to post.

[Morris]

And to my delight, Morris left his elite panzers and mechs in the front line. At least one per turn could be bombed twice and then hit from 3 sides. In this manner, I destroyed probably 5-6 German tanks and 2-3 mechs. My casualties were high, but my own elite units were able to get the job done most of the time. The USSR was saved, and by spring the Red Army was poised to go on the offensive for the first time. You know what happened in 1943—the Red Army advanced basically unopposed except for city garrisons, and was in Poland by the end of the year.

Yes , this is my fatal mistake too ! Just after that ,when I felt I could afford for that , I began our general retreat .