George_Parr wrote: ↑Sat Apr 06, 2019 11:31 am
I don't know, I don't really see any particular advantage to the British Empire, or how Germany would have to beg the USSR for necessities.
As one of the other posters noted above, Germany became heavily indebted to the USSR from 1939 onwards. That's not a tenable long-term situation.
George_Parr wrote: ↑Sat Apr 06, 2019 11:31 amThere wasn't a real chance for anyone to starve Germany of resources, especially food.
Actually food rationing went on in Germany and all German controlled territories from 1939 onwards. Early on, German civilians got enough to eat. Enough is meagre compared to today. 1 pound of meat per week, for example. And of course no imports of anything fresh during the winter. No bananas, no chocolate, no coffee, etc.
Part of what made adequate rations possible is that the Germans starved the populations they occupied, particularly the Polish and particularly Jews. That's not a sustainable situation. In the event of the UK putting continental Europe under siege, things would have gotten ugly in Europe over time.
George_Parr wrote: ↑Sat Apr 06, 2019 11:31 amThe Soviet Union could have made an impact in terms of oil, but for what possible reason would they have tried to cut the flow of resources? That only would have made them a target, something Stalin tried very hard to avoid.
The obvious reason to tighten the noose is not to empower people you can't trust. Yes, Stalin idiotically enabled Germany from 1939-1941. That wouldn't have gone on forever even without German invasion.
George_Parr wrote: ↑Sat Apr 06, 2019 11:31 amAir Supremacy depends on the situation at hand. Germany had issues in the Battle iof Britain due to having to travel over the channel, having little operational time left there and losing every plane and pilot that crashed there, while Britain had all that working in its favour. But when Britain tried to turn the tables and itself send planes over the channel, they encountered the same issues and saw lopsided losses while German planes were having the advantage of operating near their bases. It was only when Germany was very busy in the east, that the Allies managed to gain an advantage in the air. And even that took quite some time. Without Germany being heavily occupied in the east, it would be very hard for the British to gain the upper hand over continental Europe. And without the heavy fighting in the east, and no particular need for Germany to go on all-out air offensives, they have the situational advantage.
The Commonwealth Air Training Plan could produce any number of aircrew. Canada alone had over 100 flight schools and produced over 100,000 aircrew. By 1944 most of the people graduating had no chance to ever see combat because they were producing far more aircraft and crews than they could use in Europe (lack of fuel in particular). Had there been a need, the CATP would have produced even more. The UK was simply far better positioned to win a war of attrition in the air, early stumbles aside.
George_Parr wrote: ↑Sat Apr 06, 2019 11:31 amAs long as the Soviet Union stays neutral, the British don't really have much of a leg to stand on. US-involvement would certainly help securing the Atlantic, and maybe North Africa could be taken as well, but an invasion of continental Europe would be almost impossible to achieve. Germany would have way too many troops and planes for that to work out.
As I said, I agree with you that the UK probably wouldn't have liberated Europe. Nor would they have needed to to win the war. They could just take Africa, the overseas French colonies, and lay siege to Europe. Hitler would then find himself unable to offer the promised quality of life to Germans, hated by those in occupied territories, falling ever behind economically, and needing to humiliate himself before Stalin to get supplies. In this scenario he either has to make an embarrassing peace deal that makes him look weak and jeopardizes his political survival, or take the historical path and invade Russia. There simply isn't a path to victory even if he only had to face the UK. Canaris and others in German intelligence could see this from the start.