What's your "This shouldn't have happened!" moments so far?

[Spectre195]

So since this game has quite a bit of RNG, it's only a matter of time before the RNG Gods decide to be fickle and completely screw over you or your opponent. So what have been your mind boggling or funny moments of things that by the numbers shouldn't (aka incredibly unlikely) have happened but did anyway?

Just ran into this myself charging cavalry uphill into rough terrain against some skirmishers. While normally the skirmishers have no chance of winning, the terrain gave them a small chance, numbers were still overwhelming in my favor (60% of winning let alone drawing). So I charge first lancer up and lose and am disrupted. Okay well terrain gave them a chance, it happens. Next turn, wanting to end it quickly charge a second cavalry unit into same combat.....even higher chances of winning now....disrupted again. General killed. Two nearby units disrupted due to General's death. Me proceeding to face palm myself. Though at that point more impressed by the valiant skirmishers than mad at them.

[rbodleyscott]

I suspect you may have been looking at the melee chances rather than the impact chances.

The impact chances are the chances for the first turn of combat. The melee chances are the chances for the next turn of combat, if nobody disrupts at impact. (i.e. the combat that will occur in the next game turn). They are there only to guide you as to whether the combat is a good overall prospect.

There is no way the Impact win chance would be 60% uphill into rough going with lancers vs light foot.

The lancers would lose their lance POA (not open terrain) so be on a POA of maybe 50 for being superior.

The light foot would also be on a factor of 0, plus either 25 or 100 for uphill. If they were javelins they would be on a total of 125 or 200.

Assuming it was a gentle hill, and they were not javelins, so only 25 POA to the light foot, that would put the lancers on a net POA of +25, but they would be disordered, which more than compensates.

Numbers don't count at impact.

Overall, the lancers should have a low chance of winning the impact, and a higher chance of losing.

If the slope was 100 or higher, or the light foot were javelinmen, then the chances of the lancers winning at impact would be very low indeed.

The moral is: Don't charge lancers uphill into rough going even against light foot. What happened was not significantly against likelihood.

[fuzzayd]

All my 'this shouldn't have happened!' moments are, unfortunately, my own fault.

The most egregious I can think of at the moment was when I was winning a tight battle against the Romans (as Pontus). I saw an opportunity to flank a legion with medium foot, so I did.

Except the flanking maneuver was via a marsh, and I had forgotten to actually engage the legion in front with my heavy infantry prior. Two turns later, my whole flank collapsed and the battle was lost.